Fertility Prospects in Israel: Ever Below Replacement Level?
This paper discusses recent fertility trends in Israel and some possible future prospects and implications. One of the crucial analytic issues is whether relatively high levels of fertility essentially reflect the failure to curb the birth rate or rather stem from wanted fertility. By implication, are relatively high fertility rates a transitional stage toward the unavoidable decline toward or even below replacement level fertility, or are they a social feature bound to persist in the long run? The present paper, by reviewing a variety of micro- and macro-social evidence, attempts to introduce some additional insights in this ongoing debate. Fertility patterns in the past are examined in light of socioeconomic, demographic and cultural determinants that operated both at the individual and at the broader societal level. Fertility goals are examined through different measures of attainment, intention and normative appropriateness, and public attitudes towards possible policy interventions aimed at affecting fertility in the future are described. The paper also addresses whether country population projections relying on a single set of demographic assumptions are appropriate for societies like Israel, which encompass several sub-populations with significantly different demographic patterns.
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DellaPergola, Sergio. Fertility Prospects in Israel: Ever Below Replacement Level?. Avraham Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry. 2011: http://www.bjpa.org/Publications/details.cfm?PublicationID=13420
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